第108回総合防災セミナー(1/9)

「Making high resolution maps of future population for multiple socio-economic scenarios」
のタイトルでブリストル大学の Dr. Laurence Hawker に将来の社会経済シナリオごとの高解像度人口予測データの開発について講演を実施します。
 
皆様のご参加をお待ちしています。本セミナーは、英語で行います。

 
[Date & Time]
9th January, 2026 (Friday) at 3-5 pm
 

[Venue]
E-517D & Zoom
For online participants, please register from https://forms.gle/Es68Xq3zdJiLpa7G9 by Jan 8 (Thu).
 

[Speaker]
Dr. Laurence Hawker

 
[Title]
Making high resolution maps of future population for multiple socio-economic scenarios

 
[Abstract]
Climate change will have fundamental impacts on health, environments and socioeconomics, but these will not be felt equally across the World. Local variations in human distributions, demographics and growth affect vulnerabilities to a changing climate. High spatial resolution data on populations are therefore vital for understanding, measuring and planning for climate impacts. Such high-resolution (~0.1-1km resolution) population maps exist globally for past and present populations and have been widely adopted by researchers, governments and international agencies. A gap exists however, in the provision of high-resolution population data for future scenarios, broken down by age and sex, to allow assessments of future vulnerabilities to changing health risks, extreme weather and natural disasters. To address this gap, we initiated the FuturePop project.
Here we present the work of FuturePop, and the JSPS funded spin-out, FuturePop Japan. FuturePop V0.2 was published in November 2025, producing global maps at 1km resolution for the latest version (v3.2) of the widely used Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. This data is being used for the CMIP Climate forcing data and a later version to be published in 2026 will be used in the impact modelling in IPCC AR7. Additionally, the latest progress of FuturePop Japan will be discussed, which uses an update of the Japanese version of the SSPs (Chen et al., 2020). Japan makes a useful case study with the declining and ageing population, and the high (and growing) building vacancy rates which makes modelling particularly challenging. Lastly, the future plans of FuturePop will be discussed, including plans to create data at 100m resolution, age/sex disaggregated maps and future building volume maps.
FuturePop is a 7 year project (started Jan 2025) and is supported by the Wellcome Trust. We welcome contributions and feedback. Co-development is a cornerstone of the project, so we encourage collaborations. Further details of the project can be found at https://www.worldpop.org/futurepop/
Chen, H., Matsuhashi, K., Takahashi, K., Fujimori, S., Honjo, K., & Gomi, K. (2020). Adapting global shared socio-economic pathways for national scenarios in Japan. Sustainability Science, 15(3), 985-1000.

 
[Short bio]
Dr Laurence Hawker is a Research Fellow at the University of Bristol, UK, with a broad interest in understanding risk from climatic hazards. He completed his PhD at the University of Bristol in 2019, investigating regional flood models and Digital Elevation Model data. He led the creation of FABDEM, a global 30m map of terrain, and more recently FathomDEM and a global bifurcating river network called GRIT. He has also developed a global vulnerability adjusted global flood risk index and led a perspectives piece on forcibly displaced people and flood risk. Now he is co-lead of the FuturePop project