第62回総合防災セミナー

We are pleased to announce the 62nd Sogo Bosai Seminar (Sep 2) as follows. We look forward to your kind participation.
Seminar will be delivered in English.
 
[Title]
Designing spatial-temporal correlated rainfalls for integrated flood risk assessment：A vine copula based approach
 
[Speaker]
Dr. Xinyu Jiang,
Associate Professor in School of Management, Wuhan University of Technology, China
 
[Date]
Sep 2 (Fri), 16:00 – 17:30
 
[Venue & Registration]
The seminar will be held in a hybrid manner both via Zoom and onsite. The venue is room S-519D of Uji campus, Kyoto University.
 
Please register here by Sep 1 by noon.
https://forms.gle/AMTP4W9Zp6b2UZEG8 
 
[Abstract]
Spatial-temporal correlation of rainfalls are of significance in flood risk assessment, especially when multiple hazards (floods from different rivers, urban inundation. etc.) impacts to a target area are integrated considered. Conventional rainfall design methods, such as Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves or typical rainfall process enlargement, fail to capture the spatial-temporal correlation of rainfalls, therefore may lead to a biased estimation of flood risk. To solve this problem, based on the idea of using vine copulas to model the spatial-temporal dependence structures, a novel approach for rainfall design/simulation is proposed. In this presentation, the basic concept of vine copulas will be introduced, and the assumptions, alternative options behind the approach will be discussed. A case study is conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of this approach and an R package VineRain is developed to facilitate the implementation of designing spatial-temporal correlated rainfalls.
 
[Short bio]
Dr. Xinyu Jiang is an Associate Professor in School of Management, Wuhan University of Technology, China. He obtained his Ph.D. degree in social informatics at Kyoto University, Japan. and then worked as post-doctor, Program-Specific Assistant Professor at DPRI until 2017. Dr. Jiang’s academic background includes geography, hydrology, statistics, economy, and informatics. Centered on integrated flood risk assessment, his research focuses on the whole process of rainfall design, rainfall-runoff-inundation simulation, economic loss estimation and risk calculation. Different from “pure hydrologist” or “pure economist”, his research interests is bridging the gap between hazard-oriented expertise and risk-oriented expertise to support the integrated flood risk management. Namely, studying rainfall design, rainfall-runoff-inundation simulation conditioning on economic loss estimation and risk calculation. And vice versa.