イベント名：平成 26 度 第 2 回総合防災セミナー
日 時：2015 年 2 月 27 日（金） 15:00-18:00
2nd Seminar on Integrated Arts and Sciences for Disaster Reduction
Date and Time: Friday, 27 February 2015, 15:00 – 18:00
Location: DPRI Renkei-Kenkyu building 301(3F), Uji Campus, Kyoto University
1. “RAPID-N: Rapid natech risk assessment and mapping framework.”
Dr. Serkan Girgin, Research Fellow, Joint Research Centre, European Commission,
Major accidents at industrial plants that are triggered by natural hazards (Natechs) are
an emerging risk with possibly serious economic, environmental and human-health
related consequences. For the mitigation of Natech risk, which is expected to increase in
the future due to growing industry and predicted increase of natural hazards, the
authorities need to identify Natech prone areas and assess Natech risk in a methodical
way. Currently hardly any Natech risk maps exist for many countries and where
available they are simple overlays of natural and technological hazards without
considering site-specific features or the interaction of hazards.
In order to facilitate probabilistic Natech risk mapping, a unified methodology was
developed that is based on the estimation of on-site natural hazard parameters,
determination of damage probabilities of plant units due to natural hazard, and
assessment of probability and severity of possibly triggered Natech events. The
methodology was implemented as an on-line, extensible risk assessment and mapping
software called RAPID N, which allows rapid local and regional Natech risk assessment
and mapping with minimal data input. RAPID-N features an innovative data
estimation framework to complete missing input data, such as on-site natural hazard
parameters or plant unit characteristics. The framework is also used for damage
assessment and Natech consequence analysis, and allows easy modification of input
parameters, dynamic generation of consequence models according to data availability,
and extension of models by adding new equations or substituting existing ones with
alternatives. Results are presented as summary reports and interactive risk maps,
which can be used for land-use and emergency planning purposes by using scenario
hazards, or for rapid Natech consequence assessment following actual disasters. As
proof of concept, the framework provides an implementation of the U.S. EPA’s RMP
Guidance for Offsite Consequence Analysis methodology to perform Natech consequence
analysis and includes comprehensive data for world-wide earthquakes (M > 5.5). It is
readily extendible to other natural hazards and industries (e.g. pipelines) and can also
be supported with more comprehensive risk assessment methods.
During the presentation, the key elements of the Natech risk assessment methodology,
such as damage classifications, fragility curves, and risk states will be described. The
features and the modules of RAPID-N will be explained in detail and the flowchart of
the risk assessment calculations will be described step by step. Finally, the capabilities
of RAPID-N will be demonstrated by using a case-study which will involve the impact of
an earthquake on multiple industrial plants.
2. “Understanding the general picture of issues concerning people evacuating across
wide areas from Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant.”
Dr. Yoko Matsuda, Associate Professor, Kwansei Gakuin University, Japan.
Due to the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident and the Great East Japan Earthquake,
approximately 50,000 or more people have still displaced from Fukushima and nearby
prefectures to all over Japan. This issue of the long-term and widespread evacuation
has lack of prospect.
The evacuees who lived distanced from their homeland are suffering from separation
and conflict among their family, loss of job opportunities and diminished quality of life.
In addition, since they spread all over the country, it is quite difficult for them to discuss
and get consensus for the communities’ future process of recovery.
The presentation characterizes this issue of long-term evacuation, to compare it from
the cases of past natural disasters in Japan. Then it is pointed out that the structure of
the problem is similar to the international refugee problem. From these analyses, the
paper concludes that diverse support measures are required not merely repatriation
support or settlement support.